“In three years, a dozen eggs became the most volatile item on the American receipt.”
The flock never recovered
Highly pathogenic avian influenza forced the depopulation of more than 82 million laying hens between 2022 and 2025. Rebuilding a laying flock takes 18–20 weeks per bird, and producers have prioritized cage-free retrofits over raw capacity. The result: US inventories are still 6% below 2019 trend, according to USDA weekly reports.
Feed and fuel
Corn and soymeal — 65% of a laying hen's diet by cost — spiked in 2022 and never returned to pre-pandemic levels. Diesel, propane for barn heat, and packaging all rose in tandem. Each of those input lines shows up on the shelf.
The shelf price nobody predicted
The TALLY panel recorded a Grade A dozen at $2.14 in Jan 2025 and $3.86 today — a 3-year gain of +80% at retail even as wholesale eased. Retailers held the shelf price on the way down; grocery margin on eggs is now the widest since USDA began publishing the series in 2018.