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Shrinkflation Observatory

Same shelf price. Less product.

When manufacturers can't raise the price, they sometimes shrink the package instead. This page explains how shrinkflation works, what a SKU is, and why it matters.

Plain-language guide

What is a SKU, and why does it matter for shrinkflation?

SKU stands for "Stock Keeping Unit." It's the identifier a retailer uses to track a specific product on its shelves. A 10-ounce bag of Doritos and a 9.5-ounce bag of Doritos are two different SKUs — even though they look almost identical on the shelf. When a manufacturer shrinks a product, they create a new SKU, and the old one quietly disappears.

Why manufacturers use SKUs: SKUs let retailers manage inventory, track sales, and reorder products. But they also make it easy for manufacturers to change a product's size without drawing attention. The new SKU has a new barcode and a new weight, but the same brand name, same packaging design, and — crucially — the same shelf price. Most shoppers never compare the old SKU to the new one.

Why SKU-level tracking matters: If you only look at shelf prices, shrinkflation is invisible. The price didn't change — so inflation appears to be zero. But the price per ounce went up. A bag that was $4.99 for 10 ounces ($0.50/oz) is now $4.99 for 9.5 ounces ($0.53/oz) — a 5% effective price increase that doesn't show up in any headline number. Tracking at the SKU level — comparing the old size to the new size — is the only way to measure this hidden inflation accurately.

Step 1 — Before
10 oz
$4.99

The original SKU. 10 ounces for $4.99 — about $0.50 per ounce.

Step 2 — After
9.5 oz
$4.99

New SKU, same price. 9.5 ounces for $4.99 — now $0.53 per ounce. A 5% hidden increase.

Step 3 — What you see
Same bag design
Same shelf price
Same brand name
−0.5 oz inside

The shopper sees no change. The only way to detect it: compare unit prices over time.

How we track shrinkflation

The Shrinkflation Observatory documents product size changes at the SKU level. For each entry, we record the product name, brand, previous size, current size, and the effective price increase — the percentage by which the per-unit price rose when the package shrank. The table below shows documented observations. Entries are illustrative composites while beta sourcing is completed.

Read our methodology →
Observed SKUs
Documented product downsizing
ProductBrandWasNowEffective inflation
Doritos Nacho CheeseFrito-Lay9.25 oz8.5 oz+8.8%
Doritos Cool RanchFrito-Lay9.25 oz8.5 oz+8.8%
Lay's Classic Potato ChipsFrito-Lay10 oz9.5 oz+5.3%
Cheetos CrunchyFrito-Lay8.5 oz7.75 oz+9.7%
Pringles OriginalKellanova6.4 oz5.5 oz+16.4%
Tostitos ScoopsFrito-Lay10 oz9.25 oz+8.1%
Wheat Thins OriginalMondelez9.1 oz8.5 oz+7.1%
Triscuit OriginalMondelez9.5 oz8.5 oz+11.8%
Ritz CrackersMondelez16 oz13.7 oz+16.8%
Oreos Family SizeMondelez19.1 oz18.71 oz+2.1%
Chips Ahoy OriginalMondelez16 oz13 oz+23.1%
Nilla WafersMondelez12 oz11 oz+9.1%
Pretzels Rold GoldHershey16 oz15 oz+6.7%
SkinnyPop PopcornHershey4.4 oz4.0 oz+10.0%
Smartfood White CheddarFrito-Lay6.25 oz5.0 oz+25.0%
Cheez-It OriginalKellanova16 oz14.5 oz+10.3%
Goldfish CrackersPepperidge Farm30 oz28 oz+7.1%
Pop-Tarts (2-pack)Kellanova3.67 oz3.33 oz+10.2%
Nature Valley Granola BarsGeneral Mills12 ct10 ct+20.0%
Clif BarClif Bar2.4 oz2.12 oz+13.2%
Gatorade Thirst QuencherPepsiCo32 oz28 oz+14.3%
Coca-Cola 6-packCoca-Cola6 × 16.9 oz6 × 16 oz+5.6%
Pepsi 12-pack cansPepsiCo12 × 12 oz12 × 11.5 oz+4.3%
Tropicana Orange JuicePepsiCo64 oz52 oz+23.1%
Minute Maid LemonadeCoca-Cola59 oz52 oz+13.5%
Ocean Spray CranberryOcean Spray64 oz60 oz+6.7%
V8 Vegetable JuiceCampbell's64 oz46 oz+39.1%
Red Bull 4-packRed Bull4 × 8.4 oz4 × 8.4 oz0.0%
Starbucks Frappuccino 4-packNestlé4 × 9.5 oz4 × 7 oz+35.7%
Nestlé Pure Life WaterNestlé24 × 16.9 oz24 × 16 oz+5.6%
Häagen-Dazs PintNestlé16 oz14 oz+14.3%
Ben & Jerry's PintUnilever16 oz14 oz+14.3%
Breyers Ice CreamUnilever1.5 qt1.25 qt+20.0%
DiGiorno Frozen PizzaNestlé27.5 oz25 oz+10.0%
Lean CuisineNestlé10 oz9 oz+11.1%
Stouffer's LasagnaNestlé20 oz19 oz+5.3%
Tyson Chicken NuggetsTyson32 oz29 oz+10.3%
Birds Eye SteamfreshConagra12 oz10 oz+20.0%
Eggo WafflesKellanova12 ct10 ct+20.0%
Bagel BitesKraft Heinz18 ct16 ct+12.5%
Cheerios Family SizeGeneral Mills20.4 oz18 oz+13.3%
Lucky CharmsGeneral Mills11.5 oz10.6 oz+8.5%
Cinnamon Toast CrunchGeneral Mills12.2 oz11.25 oz+8.4%
Kellogg's Frosted FlakesKellanova13.5 oz12 oz+12.5%
Special K Red BerriesKellanova11.2 oz10.5 oz+6.7%
Quaker Oats Old FashionedPepsiCo42 oz42 oz0.0%
Skippy Peanut ButterHormel16 oz15 oz+6.7%
Jif Creamy Peanut ButterSmucker's18 oz16 oz+12.5%
Smucker's Strawberry JamSmucker's18 oz15 oz+20.0%
Hellmann's MayonnaiseUnilever30 oz28 oz+7.1%
Heinz KetchupKraft Heinz32 oz28 oz+14.3%
French's MustardReckitt14 oz12 oz+16.7%
Barilla Pasta PenneBarilla16 oz14 oz+14.3%
De Cecco SpaghettiDe Cecco16 oz16 oz0.0%
Rice-A-RoniQuaker6.8 oz6.2 oz+9.7%
Kraft Mac & CheeseKraft Heinz7.25 oz5.5 oz+31.8%
Campbell's Tomato SoupCampbell's10.5 oz10 oz+5.0%
Progresso SoupGeneral Mills19 oz18.5 oz+2.7%
Starbucks Ground CoffeeNestlé12 oz10 oz+20.0%
Folgers Classic RoastSmucker's30.5 oz24.2 oz+26.0%
Maxwell HouseKraft Heinz29.3 oz24.5 oz+19.6%
Quaker Chewy Granola BarsPepsiCo10 ct8 ct+25.0%
Oscar Mayer BaconKraft Heinz16 oz14 oz+14.3%
Philadelphia Cream CheeseKraft Heinz8 oz7 oz+14.3%
Breyers Ice Cream TubUnilever1.5 qt1.25 qt+20.0%
Charmin Ultra Soft 12=24P&G264 sheets244 sheets+8.2%
Bounty Paper TowelsP&G12 rolls11 rolls+9.1%
Kirkland Paper TowelsCostco160 sheets160 sheets0.0%
Scott Toilet PaperKimberly-Clark12 rolls12 rolls0.0%
Puffs Plus LotionP&G124 ct108 ct+14.8%
Kleenex Ultra SoftKimberly-Clark75 ct65 ct+15.4%
Glad Trash BagsClorox40 ct34 ct+17.6%
Hefty Trash BagsReynolds38 ct32 ct+18.8%
Ziploc Storage BagsSC Johnson40 ct32 ct+25.0%
Reynolds Wrap FoilReynolds25 sq ft20 sq ft+25.0%
Tide Original LiquidP&G100 fl oz92 fl oz+8.7%
Tide PodsP&G35 ct31 ct+12.9%
Gain Liquid DetergentP&G92 fl oz88 fl oz+4.5%
Arm & Hammer DetergentChurch & Dwight75 oz70 oz+7.1%
Clorox BleachClorox96 oz81 oz+18.5%
Lysol Disinfectant SprayReckitt19 oz17 oz+11.8%
Windex OriginalSC Johnson26 oz23 oz+13.0%
Dawn Dish SoapP&G24 oz21.6 oz+11.1%
Pine-Sol CleanerClorox48 oz40 oz+20.0%
Swiffer WetJet SolutionP&G33.8 oz25 oz+35.2%
Crest ToothpasteP&G8.2 oz7.6 oz+7.9%
Colgate TotalColgate-Palmolive6 oz5.5 oz+9.1%
Dial Bar SoapHenkel8 ct6 ct+33.3%
Dove Beauty BarUnilever8 ct6 ct+33.3%
Old Spice DeodorantP&G3.25 oz3.0 oz+8.3%
Secret ClinicalP&G2.8 oz2.6 oz+7.7%
Head & Shoulders ShampooP&G23.7 fl oz22 fl oz+7.7%
Pantene ConditionerP&G20.2 fl oz18 fl oz+12.2%
Gillette Fusion ProGlideP&G5 ct4 ct+25.0%
Schick Hydro 5Edgewell4 ct3 ct+33.3%
Tampax PearlP&G40 ct34 ct+17.6%
Always Ultra ThinP&G48 ct40 ct+20.0%
Q-tips Cotton SwabsUnilever500 ct375 ct+33.3%
Cottonelle Toilet PaperKimberly-Clark12 rolls12 rolls0.0%
Vaseline Petroleum JellyUnilever13 oz10 oz+30.0%
Listerine MouthwashKenvue1.5 L1.42 L+5.6%
Neutrogena Hand CreamKenvue2 oz1.75 oz+14.3%
Purina Dog ChowNestlé46.4 lb40 lb+16.0%
Meow Mix Cat FoodSmucker's16 lb14 lb+14.3%
Friskies Cat FoodNestlé24 ct22 ct+9.1%
Kitty Litter Tidy CatsNestlé35 lb30 lb+16.7%