Executive summary
This report tracks food and grocery price changes through Sep 2025. Data is drawn from publicly available USDA and BLS sources, supplemented by shelf-level observations. During beta, some figures are illustrative composites.
Grocery basket analysis
The cost of a standard grocery basket — including staples like eggs, milk, bread, ground beef, chicken, rice, and fresh produce — changed significantly over the tracking period. Egg prices remained volatile due to avian influenza outbreaks affecting supply. Dairy prices showed moderation. Fresh produce costs varied seasonally, with notable increases in categories affected by weather events.
Supply chain factors
Grocery prices are influenced by farm-level commodity costs, processing and transportation expenses, labor costs, and retail margins. In 2025, labor cost stabilization helped moderate price increases in some categories, while weather disruptions and animal disease outbreaks caused spikes in others. The USDA tracks farm-to-retail price spreads, which help explain why shelf prices don't always move in lockstep with commodity prices.
Consumer impact
Food costs represent approximately 10-15% of average household spending. Lower-income households spend a higher share. Price changes in core staples — eggs, milk, bread, and ground beef — have the most visible impact on household budgets. This report tracks those staples alongside broader category trends.
Monthly data table
| Month | Food CPI (% YoY) |
|---|---|
| Jan 25 | 4.4% |
| Feb 25 | 3.9% |
| Mar 25 | 4.7% |
| Apr 25 | 3.7% |
| May 25 | 3.7% |
| Jun 25 | 3.6% |
| Jul 25 | 3.5% |
| Aug 25 | 3.9% |
| Sep 25 | 5.0% |
| Oct 25 | 4.9% |
| Nov 25 | 3.8% |
| Dec 25 | 4.5% |
| Jan 26 | 4.7% |
| Feb 26 | 5.1% |
| Mar 26 | 3.7% |
| Apr 26 | 4.4% |
| May 26 | 4.8% |
| Jun 26 | 3.9% |
| Jul 26 | 3.2% |
Methodology
The Consumer Price Index measures the average change over time in prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of goods and services. TALLY Insights presents this data in an accessible format. Full methodology details are available on our methodology page.